Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma?: Jim Priest
KXSENATEOKD-26-JPRI
Cluster 2
Will N’Kiyla Thomas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma
Will N’Kiyla Thomas be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Oklahoma?: N’Kiyla Thomas
KXSENATEOKD-26-NTHO
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Jim Priest will secure the Democratic nomination for Oklahoma's U.S. Senate seat. At 29%, the market suggests Priest faces meaningful competition within the Democratic primary, though he maintains a notable position. The current level likely reflects his existing political profile, fundraising capacity, and any early organizational advantages or disadvantages relative to other potential Democratic candidates. Key uncertainties include whether higher-profile Democrats enter the race, primary voter preferences as the nomination process advances, and Priest's ability to build coalition support. The Oklahoma Democratic primary election will ultimately resolve this question when voters cast ballots, likely determining whether Priest clears the nomination threshold or falls short to alternative candidates.
- ›The field composition of competing Democratic candidates—entry or withdrawal of other candidates would materially affect Priest's path to nomination
- ›Priest's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand relative to primary opponents, which typically correlate with viability and media presence
- ›Primary voter turnout and demographic composition, as different voter subsets may show varying preference patterns
- ›Any significant news events, endorsements, or missteps affecting Priest's public standing during the primary season
- ›The Democratic Party's historical performance and current strength in Oklahoma, which establishes baseline expectations for nominee competitiveness
What moved the line
- Jun 19Jim Priest↓4pp8→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Jim Priest↑3pp4→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Jim Priest↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19N’Kiyla Thomas↑3pp86→89¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20N’Kiyla Thomas↓3pp89→86¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028last 35% · 1d
- Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1last 4% · 1d
- Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02last 47% · 1d
- Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17last 45% · 1d
- Will Christopher Gallant be the Democratic nominee for NY-01last 16% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (49% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.