Will United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 424.0?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above.... This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a dramatic 42-cent price surge over seven days (50¢ to 92¢), suggesting minimal real conviction behind the move.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a dramatic 42-cent price surge over seven days (50¢ to 92¢), suggesting minimal real conviction behind the move. The 0% current price contradicts the recent upward momentum and implies an absurdly high 16,499% yield on the "No" side, indicating severe mispricing or a data anomaly. With only 25 days to expiry and a 12 Cliff Risk Index, this appears to be a thin, potentially manipulated market where any actual trading could cause significant price volatility.
Resolution rules
If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Shelter in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 424.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSHELTERCPI-26MAY12-T424.0 yes 100