Will Euphoria Season 3 have above 2600000 Total Season Views on Luminate during April 24 - April 30, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
5 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2028
737 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Atlanta have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Will Atlanta have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Atlanta
KXMLBBESTRECORD-26-ATL
Cluster 2
Will Los Angeles D have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Will New York Y have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Will New York Y have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: New York Y
KXMLBBESTRECORD-26-NYY
Cluster 4
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 160
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-160
Cluster 5
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Analysis
This contract predicts whether HBO's Euphoria Season 3 will accumulate more than 2.6 million total season views on Luminate during the week of April 24-30, 2026. The 28% probability reflects uncertainty about the show's viewership performance in a specific measurement window. Key drivers include the show's historical viewership trends, the timing of Season 3's release relative to this week, and competition from other content during that period. The resolution depends entirely on Luminate's official viewership data for that week, which typically becomes available in early May 2026. Analysts weighing this contract should consider whether Season 3 premiered before or during that week, the show's typical weekly audience size based on previous seasons, and whether 2.6 million views represents an average or above-average performance.
- ›Euphoria Season 3 premiere date relative to April 24-30, 2026—whether it aired during this window or earlier
- ›Historical weekly viewership patterns for Euphoria Seasons 1-2 on Luminate to establish baseline performance expectations
- ›Competitive landscape during April 24-30, 2026—other major content releases that could fragment viewership
- ›Whether 2.6 million views represents typical weekly performance or requires above-average audience engagement
- ›Luminate's measurement methodology and reporting lag time for final season view counts
What moved the line
- Jun 20Above 160↓7pp30→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Atlanta↓6pp23→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Atlanta↓6pp17→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21New York Y↓6pp8→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Atlanta↓5pp13→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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