Will Euphoria Season 3 have above 2600000 Total Season Views on Luminate during April 24 - April 30, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 15 contracts. Kalshi at 29%, Polymarket at 18% — a 11pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
14 contracts
Polymarket
18%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
11pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$21K
15 contracts
Top contract
56¢
$5K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 29¢ · Polymarket 18¢ · 11pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (18¢, 1 contract) and sell on Kalshi (29¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
10 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 19% of their title tokens — “How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026” vs “Will Los Angeles D have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 13
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-13
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 14
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-14
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 12
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-12
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 10
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-10
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 15
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-15
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 160
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-160
Cluster 2
Will Los Angeles D have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Who will die in Euphoria: Season 3
Who will die in Euphoria: Season 3?: Rue Bennett
0x30b8e5…da03
Cluster 4
Will New York Y have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Will New York Y have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: New York Y
KXMLBBESTRECORD-26-NYY
Cluster 5
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2
Cluster 6
Will Billie Eilish have above 236,885,880 Streams on Luminate from May 01 - May 07, 2026
Cluster 7
Will St. Louis have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Will St. Louis have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: St. Louis
KXMLBWORSTRECORD-26-STL
Cluster 8
Will Chicago WS have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Will Chicago WS have the worst record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Chicago WS
KXMLBWORSTRECORD-26-CWS
Cluster 9
Will Atlanta have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Will Atlanta have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Atlanta
KXMLBBESTRECORD-26-ATL
Cluster 10
Will Drake have above 800000 Album Equivalent Units on Luminate during May 15, 2026 - May 21, 2026
What moved the line
- Apr 26Season 3?: Rue Bennett↓19pp59→40¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Los Angeles D↓18pp46→28¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Season 3?: Rue Bennett↓17pp34→17¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 27Chicago WS↑15pp8→23¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Chicago WS↓11pp19→8¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.