What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 8?
KXSURVIVORMENTION-26APR15-FIRE · closes Apr 16, 2026 · 3 days remaining
Price
Last
29¢
Bid
28¢
Ask
29¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$3,244
Open Interest
$5,195
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 33071.6% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 5001.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 3.8% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1694% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 0.97 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.5/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 33072% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
201 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.341
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 6:04:17 PM
About this market
If Jeff Probst says Fire as part of Survivor Season 50 Episode 8 , then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXSURVIVORMENTION-26APR15-FIRE yes 100