Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 58% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
58%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2028
920 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Benny Blanco attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Will Benny Blanco attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?: Benny Blanco
KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDINGATTEND-28DEC-BEN
Cluster 2
Will Blake Lively attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Cluster 3
Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Cluster 4
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Cluster 5
Will Danielle Haim attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Cluster 6
Wil Florence Welchl attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Cluster 7
Will Phoebe Bridgers attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Cluster 8
Will Katy Perry attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Will Katy Perry attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?: Katy Perry
KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDINGATTEND-28DEC-KAT
Cluster 9
Will Justin Trudeau attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Cluster 10
Will Lana Del Rey attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Cluster 11
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Cluster 12
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?: Max Martin
KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDINGATTEND-28DEC31-MAX
Cluster 13
Will Gracie Abrams attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Cluster 14
Will Selena Gomez attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Cluster 15
Will Harry Styles attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Will Harry Styles attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?: Harry Styles
KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDINGATTEND-28DEC-HAR
Cluster 16
Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?: Jared Goff
KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDINGATTEND-28DEC31-JAR
Cluster 17
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Will Alana Haim attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?: Alana Haim
KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDINGATTEND-28DEC31-ALA
Cluster 18
Will Este Haim attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Will Este Haim attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?: Este Haim
KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDINGATTEND-28DEC31-EST
Cluster 19
Will Patrick Mahomes attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Cluster 20
Will Lorde attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding
Will Lorde attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?: Lorde
KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDINGATTEND-28DEC-LOR
Analysis
This represents the estimated likelihood that Brittany Mahomes, wife of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, will attend a wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. The 65% probability reflects moderate confidence in her attendance, likely driven by the close relationship between the Mahomes and Kelce families within the NFL, as well as Swift and Kelce's public connection. The primary factors influencing this estimate are social ties within the sports-celebrity circle and typical wedding guest patterns for high-profile athletes' families. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty would be either an official wedding announcement with a guest list, media confirmation of attendance plans, or the wedding date itself occurring. Until then, probabilities remain anchored to observable relationship indicators and historical precedent for similar high-profile events.
- ›Patrick Mahomes' probability of attendance markets at 80-91% across platforms, suggesting the market expects him to attend and potentially bring family members
- ›Brittany Mahomes maintains active social media presence and regularly attends NFL events and celebrity functions alongside her husband
- ›Historical precedent: high-profile athlete spouses typically attend weddings of teammates' family members, particularly when social circles overlap
- ›No official wedding announcement, date, or guest list has been publicly confirmed as of May 2026
- ›Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift's relationship status and public commitment level would directly influence family inclusion in wedding planning
What moved the line
- Jun 22Florence Welch↑23pp8→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Lana Del Rey↓18pp62→44¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Max Martin↓17pp66→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Florence Welch↓15pp37→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Florence Welch↓14pp22→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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