Will Bad Bunny be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Bad Bunny be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that t.... This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. Bad Bunny's 22¢ price reflects a modest 22% probability of topping U.S.
Analysis
Bad Bunny's 22¢ price reflects a modest 22% probability of topping U.S. Spotify Wrapped in 2026, with the Yes side offering an exceptional 531.8% implied yield—a significant outlier that suggests either genuine mispricing or extreme tail-risk compensation. The market shows healthy liquidity with $26K open interest and tight 1¢ spreads, though modest 24-hour volume of $980 and recent downward price drift from 23¢ indicate limited recent conviction. With 258 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a speculative contrarian bet rather than a consensus view on Bad Bunny's streaming dominance.
Resolution rules
If Bad Bunny is the #1 most streamed Artist on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPARTISTUSA-26-BAD yes 100