Will Bruno Mars be the #1 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist U.S chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
5 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will bad bunny be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 2
will drake be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 3
will taylor swift be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 4
will ella langley be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Cluster 5
will bruno mars be the #1 most streamed artist on the 2026 spotify wrapped top 10 artist u.s chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026
Analysis
This prediction asks whether Bruno Mars will be the most-streamed artist in the United States on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped chart, which will be released in early December 2026. The current 26% probability reflects moderate skepticism about Bruno Mars holding the top spot over competitors like Drake (71% to be #1) and Taylor Swift (19% to be #1). The probability is driven by Bruno Mars' current streaming momentum—he had a 7-cent contract for daily chart performance in May 2026—but faces stiff competition from established high-volume streamers. The outcome will ultimately depend on streaming activity across the full year 2026, with the Spotify Wrapped release in December serving as the resolution event. Between now and then, new music releases, touring activity, and overall listener engagement from all competing artists will determine final rankings.
- ›Bruno Mars' average monthly streams throughout 2026 relative to Drake, Taylor Swift, and other major artists competing for the #1 position
- ›Release of new Bruno Mars music or major touring activity in 2026 that could drive incremental streaming volume
- ›Drake's commanding 71% probability to finish #1, suggesting market participants see him as the primary frontrunner in the U.S. market
- ›Streaming behavior shifts in the second half of 2026, as Wrapped rankings reflect full-year cumulative data released in early December
- ›Historical volatility in annual Wrapped rankings, which can shift significantly based on late-year album releases or unexpected chart movements
What moved the line
- Jun 2Taylor Swift↑3pp14→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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