Will End of Beginning be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will End of Beginning be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the da.... This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The 19¢ price reflects an extremely asymmetric risk profile, with a 868.5% implied yield on Yes contracts versus just 23.0% on No, suggesting the market has priced in substantial skepticism about "End of Beginning" achieving the #1 global spot despite its current trajectory.
Analysis
The 19¢ price reflects an extremely asymmetric risk profile, with a 868.5% implied yield on Yes contracts versus just 23.0% on No, suggesting the market has priced in substantial skepticism about "End of Beginning" achieving the #1 global spot despite its current trajectory. With only $24.9 in 24-hour volume against $3.9k open interest and a 5¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to the outsized payoff potential, creating execution risk for larger positions. The stable 7-day price action (holding at 14¢) and moderate 258-day time horizon indicate this is a speculative long-shot bet rather than a market in flux, though the 6 Cliff Risk Index suggests meaningful uncertainty around final resolution criteria.
Resolution rules
If End of Beginning is the #1 most streamed Song on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTOPSONGSPOTIFY-26-END yes 100