Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Iran?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Iran?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting the 13¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus but rather stale pricing from limited historical trades.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting the 13¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus but rather stale pricing from limited historical trades. The astronomical 3379% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a low-probability tail event with minimal trading activity, while the sharp 7-point price decline over seven days (from 7¢ to 4¢) indicates recent downward pressure that hasn't yet stabilized the market. With 259 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 24, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this quote given the $10,935 open interest concentrated in what appears to be a thinly-traded position.
Resolution rules
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a level 3 or lower travel advisory for Iran after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-IRA yes 100