Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Syria
Leader sits at 33% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Uganda
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Democratic Republic of the C
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$85
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
160 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Yemen?: Yemen
KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-YEM
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Democratic Republic of the Congo?: Democratic Republic of the Congo
KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-DRC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Russia?: Russia
KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-RUS
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Ukraine?: Ukraine
KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-UKR
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Lebanon?: Lebanon
KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-LEB
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Uganda?: Uganda
KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-UGA
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Syria?: Syria
KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-SYR
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for South Sudan?: South Sudan
KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE-27JAN01-SSUD
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that the U.S. State Department will downgrade Syria's travel warning to level 3 or lower by January 2027, currently priced at 11%. Syria has maintained a level 4 warning (do not travel) since 2011 due to ongoing conflict and instability. The low probability reflects the significant security challenges that would need to resolve for such a downgrade. Key drivers include the pace of Syrian political stabilization, international recognition of any new government, and U.S. diplomatic reassessment priorities. The resolution depends on State Department official policy changes, which typically follow major developments in Syrian security conditions or political transition. Upcoming indicators include any peace negotiations, humanitarian situation improvements, or shifts in regional dynamics that might prompt the department to reconsider its advisory stance.
- ›Syria's current level 4 travel warning has remained in place since 2011; a downgrade would require sustained security improvements verified by U.S. intelligence and diplomatic assessments
- ›Recent Syrian political developments and international recognition status; the degree to which Syrian institutions gain international legitimacy affects U.S. willingness to revise travel guidance
- ›Comparative regional travel advisory trends; U.S. policy on similar countries experiencing post-conflict transitions may influence Syria assessment methodology
- ›State Department review cycles and diplomatic priorities; travel warnings are typically updated in response to verified security changes rather than on fixed schedules
- ›Economic and humanitarian indicators in Syria; reconstruction progress and normalization of civil institutions are prerequisites for meaningful advisory downgrade consideration
What moved the line
- Jul 25Russia↓6pp12→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Lebanon↑6pp11→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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