Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027?
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-HLUT · closes Jan 1, 2027 · 263 days remaining
Price
Last
51¢
Bid
49¢
Ask
51¢
Spread
2¢
24h Volume
$2,071.15
Open Interest
$81,398.93
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 144.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 133.4% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 9.4% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 170% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.44 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.2/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 145% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
49 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 7:11:28 PM
About this market
If Howard Lutnick leaves as Secretary of Commerce before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-HLUT yes 100