Will Marco Rubio leaves Secretary of State in before 2027?
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-MRUB · closes Jan 1, 2027 · 263 days remaining
Price
Last
22¢
Bid
22¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$401.1
Open Interest
$35,914.72
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 492.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 39.2% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 9.5% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 245% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.11 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 492% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
33 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 5:59:42 PM
About this market
If Marco Rubio leaves as Secretary of State before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-MRUB yes 100