Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?
KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PHEG · closes Jan 1, 2027 · 263 days remaining
Price
Last
54¢
Bid
54¢
Ask
55¢
Spread
1¢
24h Volume
$6,503.4
Open Interest
$239,053.79
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 118.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 163.0% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 9.4% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.02 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 416% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 3.52 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.5/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 160% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
150 indicator snapshots · 41 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 7:11:53 PM
About this market
If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26DEC31-PHEG yes 100