Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely low probability (9%) for Trump's early departure, reflecting the baseline expectation of a full term, though the massive 3939% implied yield on the Yes side indicates substantial tail-risk premium for a binary event with limited time value.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely low probability (9%) for Trump's early departure, reflecting the baseline expectation of a full term, though the massive 3939% implied yield on the Yes side indicates substantial tail-risk premium for a binary event with limited time value. The $1.6M open interest against only $28K daily volume suggests illiquidity relative to position size, creating potential execution challenges if traders need to exit. The recent price movement from 9¢ to 8¢ over seven days and the moderate 12 Cliff Risk Index warrant monitoring, as unexpected political developments could trigger sharp repricing in this thin market.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump leaves office before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPOUT27-27-26AUG01 yes 100