Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Kalshi, closing January 20, 2029. The market is pricing in a 40% probability of Trump leaving office early, with a notably asymmetric risk profile: the Yes side offers a 56.5% implied yield versus just 23.1% for No, suggesting traders view early departure as a tail risk with outsized payoff potential.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 40% probability of Trump leaving office early, with a notably asymmetric risk profile: the Yes side offers a 56.5% implied yield versus just 23.1% for No, suggesting traders view early departure as a tail risk with outsized payoff potential. Volume is modest at $2,746.51 over 24 hours relative to the $203k open interest, and the price has drifted down 2 cents over the past week, indicating slight erosion in early-exit expectations despite nearly three years until expiry. The tight 1¢ spread and low cliff risk index (2) suggest stable market conditions with minimal near-term event concentration.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPOUT27-27-JAN2029 yes 100