Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029
Leader sits at 34% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before January 20, 2029
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
Before 2028
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$13K
liquid
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
958 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump leave office before
Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?: Before August 1, 2026
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-26AUG01
Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?: Before January 20, 2029
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-JAN2029
Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?: Before 2028
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-28
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Donald Trump will not complete his second term through January 20, 2029. The 27% estimate appears driven by two competing dynamics: very low near-term risk (contracts pricing imminent resignation or removal at just 5%) suggests markets view immediate departure as unlikely, while the longer-term probability accounts for cumulative risks including health considerations, legal proceedings, or political developments that could emerge over a 2.5-year horizon. The baseline expectation remains that Trump serves his full term, but markets assign non-trivial probability to unexpected developments. Ongoing geopolitical events, court decisions on pending cases, and any major political shifts would be primary catalysts that could materially move this probability in either direction.
- ›Near-term departure probability (before August 2026) is priced at only 5%, indicating markets assess immediate resignation or removal as highly unlikely
- ›The probability increases substantially when extending the timeline to 2029, suggesting cumulative risk concerns rather than imminent threats
- ›Current contracts show relatively modest trading volume on the January 2029 contract ($2,796 24-hour), indicating limited liquidity and potential for larger probability swings with significant new information
- ›Markets simultaneously price very high probability (83-90%) of Trump visiting China in the near term, suggesting ongoing international engagement is expected
- ›The 27% probability implies roughly 73% confidence in term completion, reflecting market base case of normal presidential tenure absent extraordinary circumstances
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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