Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EHOL · closes Jan 21, 2029 · 1014 days remaining
Price
Last
43¢
Bid
38¢
Ask
43¢
Spread
5¢
24h Volume
$8
Open Interest
$184
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 56.3% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 23.0% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 13.7% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 28% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
8 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 7:16:44 PM
About this market
If Elizabeth Holmes has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EHOL yes 100