Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" before Apr 20, 2026?
KXTRUMPSAY-26APR20-DRIL · closes Apr 20, 2026 · 7 days remaining
Price
Last
64¢
Bid
64¢
Ask
83¢
Spread
19¢
24h Volume
$1,305
Open Interest
$1,077
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 1312.4% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 20998.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 15.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.23 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2245% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 4.52 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 3.4/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 16274% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
35 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
19¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 3:13:13 PM
About this market
If Drill Baby Drill, or a plural or possessive form of Drill Baby Drill, is stated by Donald Trump before Apr 20, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXTRUMPSAY-26APR20-DRIL yes 100