Will Trump say "Melania" before Apr 20, 2026?
KXTRUMPSAY-26APR20-MELA · closes Apr 20, 2026 · 7 days remaining
Price
Last
84¢
Bid
85¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
3¢
24h Volume
$1,593
Open Interest
$1,232
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 942.0% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 30247.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 6 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 14.5% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2373% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 6.83 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 30248% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
37 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 6:01:25 PM
About this market
If Melania, or a plural or possessive form of Melania, is stated by Donald Trump before Apr 20, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXTRUMPSAY-26APR20-MELA yes 100