Will Trump say "Rory / McIlroy" before Apr 20, 2026?
KXTRUMPSAY-26APR20-RORY · closes Apr 20, 2026 · 7 days remaining
Price
Last
75¢
Bid
36¢
Ask
69¢
Spread
33¢
24h Volume
$671
Open Interest
$549
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 9562.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 3025.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 14.7% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 4060% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 3.79 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.8/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 9562% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
42 indicator snapshots · 1 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
33¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 7:08:55 PM
About this market
If Rory / McIlroy, or a plural or possessive form of Rory / McIlroy, is stated by Donald Trump before Apr 20, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXTRUMPSAY-26APR20-RORY yes 100