Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jun 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Sys.... This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic volatility, surging 14 cents over seven days to 31¢, with realized volatility at 1769% and an extraordinary implied yield of 1868% on the Yes side reflecting the binary nature and short 46-day timeframe.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic volatility, surging 14 cents over seven days to 31¢, with realized volatility at 1769% and an extraordinary implied yield of 1868% on the Yes side reflecting the binary nature and short 46-day timeframe. Despite modest $2,551 daily volume and $3,224 open interest, the tight 1¢ spread and neutral regime suggest relatively balanced positioning, though the 2.18 vol ratio indicates elevated uncertainty compared to baseline. The 1.2 information arrivals per hour and cliff risk index of 2 suggest this market is sensitive to near-term political developments, making the recent price spike potentially reactive to recent news rather than a fundamental shift in underlying probability.
Resolution rules
If the President of the United States has tried to fire Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRYFIREPOWELL-26MAY12-JUN01 yes 100