Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before May 15, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$72
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
164 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027
Analysis
This market estimates a 24% probability that the President will attempt to remove Jerome Powell from his role at the Federal Reserve before May 15, 2026. The relatively low probability suggests traders view an immediate removal attempt as unlikely within this short timeframe. Powell's position at the Fed typically involves insulation from direct executive removal authority, though the President has expressed criticism of monetary policy decisions. The main factors pushing this probability upward would be significant economic deterioration or escalating public conflict between the President and Powell; downward pressure comes from the constitutional and procedural constraints on removing a sitting Fed Chair mid-term. The approaching May 15 deadline means market pricing primarily reflects expectations about statements or actions in the next two weeks.
- ›Powell's term as Chair runs through May 2026, meaning any removal would require either a formal replacement nomination or unprecedented executive action
- ›Historical precedent shows no sitting Fed Chair has been removed by a President during their term; removal attempts face substantial legal and institutional obstacles
- ›Recent communications or public statements from the President toward the Fed Chair in early May 2026 would directly influence near-term probability movement
- ›Economic data released between now and May 15 (jobs reports, inflation figures, Fed decisions) could trigger policy disagreements or public criticism
- ›Market pricing appears anchored around baseline institutional resistance rather than current political conflict intensity, suggesting a catalyst would be needed to move probability materially higher
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In fed rate
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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