Will Tesla Inc. report above 320000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will Tesla Inc. report above 320000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing August 21, 2026. This market is pricing in near-certainty (98%) that Tesla will exceed 320,000 Q2 2026 deliveries, yet the extremely thin liquidity ($20 open interest, $40 daily volume) and massive 8¢ spread suggest the price may not reflect genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market is pricing in near-certainty (98%) that Tesla will exceed 320,000 Q2 2026 deliveries, yet the extremely thin liquidity ($20 open interest, $40 daily volume) and massive 8¢ spread suggest the price may not reflect genuine conviction. The dramatic 72¢ price surge over seven days combined with a cliff risk index of 10 indicates potential manipulation or a sudden shift in available information, making the 28.5% annualized yield on the Yes side deceptively attractive given execution risk on such an illiquid contract.
Resolution rules
If Tesla Inc. reports above 320000 total deliveries in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-320000.0 yes 100