Will Tesla Inc. report above 360000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 81% probability that Will Tesla Inc. report above 360000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 81¢ on Kalshi, closing August 21, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic volatility, with the Yes price surging 17 cents to 81 cents over seven days, suggesting recent bullish sentiment on Tesla's delivery capacity.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic volatility, with the Yes price surging 17 cents to 81 cents over seven days, suggesting recent bullish sentiment on Tesla's delivery capacity. However, the extremely thin liquidity ($77 daily volume, $150.53 open interest) and wide 10-cent spread indicate this contract lacks depth, making the 81% probability potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation. The asymmetric implied yields (106.5% for Yes versus 778.6% for No) combined with a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 3 suggest significant uncertainty about whether Tesla can sustain or exceed its recent delivery trends through Q2 2026.
Resolution rules
If Tesla Inc. reports above 360000 total deliveries in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-360000.0 yes 100