Will Tesla Inc. report above 370000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will Tesla Inc. report above 370000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing August 21, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $111 in 24-hour volume against $196.48 open interest, creating a wide 10¢ spread and highly unreliable pricing signals.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $111 in 24-hour volume against $196.48 open interest, creating a wide 10¢ spread and highly unreliable pricing signals. The 73¢ price implies Tesla will exceed 370,000 Q2 2026 deliveries, but the astronomical 2,164% realized volatility and 11.02 vol ratio—combined with a dramatic 62¢ price surge over 7 days—suggest the market has experienced significant information shocks rather than reflecting stable consensus. The 512% risk-adjusted implied yield on the "No" side and 127 days to expiry indicate this is a speculative, thinly-traded contract where the current price may not represent true probability.
Resolution rules
If Tesla Inc. reports above 370000 total deliveries in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTSLA-26JULDELIV-370000.0 yes 100