Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 33% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Tom Aspinall
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Ciryl Gane
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$361
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
187 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026
Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?: Tom Aspinall
KXUFCHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-26-TASP
Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?: Josh Hokit
KXUFCHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-26-JHOK
Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?: Ciryl Gane
KXUFCHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-26-CGAN
Who will be the Heavyweight Title on Dec 31, 2026?: Waldo Cortes Acosta
KXUFCHEAVYWEIGHTTITLE-26-WACO
Analysis
This 25% probability indicates roughly one-in-four odds that a specific fighter will hold the UFC Heavyweight Title on December 31, 2026. The current market leader reflects expectations based on the fighter's recent performance, injury status, and position in the title contention rankings. Movement in this probability would likely follow significant fight outcomes—wins advancing a contender toward a title shot, or losses eliminating them from contention. The primary catalyst for resolution will be championship fights scheduled between now and year-end; any injury, upset result, or title vacancy would substantially shift these odds. Secondary factors include interim title creations and unexpected retirements that could alter the competitive landscape.
- ›Current title holder's health status and scheduled title defense dates through December 2026
- ›Win-loss record and strength of schedule for leading contenders in the heavyweight rankings
- ›Historical frequency of title changes in the heavyweight division during comparable time windows
- ›Interim title creation likelihood, which could fragment the holder landscape
- ›Major injuries or retirements announced among top-5 ranked contenders
What moved the line
- Jun 26Tom Aspinall↑16pp38→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Ciryl Gane↓16pp39→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Tom Aspinall↓9pp45→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Tom Aspinall↓7pp41→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Ciryl Gane↑7pp23→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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