Will the U.S. sovereign wealth fund be operational before 2027?

The market is pricing in a very low probability (23%) for U.S. sovereign wealth fund operationalization by year-end 2026, despite the extraordinarily high implied yield of 470.6% on the Yes side, suggesting significant mispricing or extreme skepticism about execution timelines. With zero 24-hour volume against $10,798 open interest and a tight 2¢ spread, liquidity is essentially frozen, making this a speculative position rather than an actively traded market. The 260-day timeframe and neutral regime score indicate this hinges on near-term policy implementation rather than market sentiment shifts, though the 3-level cliff risk suggests potential for sharp repricing if Trump administration moves materialize.

Resolution rules

If the U.S. sovereign wealth fund that President Trump ordered the creation of holds some financial asset before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade