Louisville City vs Sporting Jax Winner?

84¢

Bid/Ask 83/84¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $142·Closes May 2, 2026·15d remaining

KXUSLGAME-26APR18LFCSPO-LFC

7-day price4 snapshots

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Louisville City is priced heavily as the favorite at 84¢ with minimal liquidity ($142 open interest and zero 24-hour volume), creating extreme yield asymmetry where the No side offers an implausible 11,819.7% implied yield versus 495.8% for Yes. The market has experienced significant price compression over seven days (2¢ to 83¢), suggesting either sharp movement in underlying odds or low-liquidity distortion, and with 15 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this contract faces elevated execution risk near resolution.

Resolution rules

If Louisville City wins the Louisville City vs Sporting Jax professional USL Championship soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 495.8%

IY (No) 11819.7%

Adj IY 5910%

CRI 5

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	495.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11819.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5910%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 7:22:28 PM

Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 7:08:52 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUSLGAME-26APR18LFCSPO-LFC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →