Will US personal spending MoM for March 2026 be above 0.1%?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (93%) that March 2026 personal spending will exceed 0.1% MoM, with the price rising sharply from 75¢ over seven days, suggesting growing confidence in above-threshold consumer spending. However, the extraordinarily asymmetric implied yields—497.6% for Yes versus 18,776.8% for No—combined with thin liquidity ($211 open interest, $200 daily volume) and a wide 8¢ spread indicate this market lacks depth and may be mispricing tail risk. With only 12 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, the sharp probability move warrants caution about whether the consensus reflects genuine economic conviction or merely illiquidity-driven price distortion.

Resolution rules

If US personal spending MoM for March 2026 is above 0.1, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade