Will Galions win the Caldya Esport vs. Galions Valorant match?

99¢

Bid/Ask 99/100¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $6,014.74·OI $3,809.27·Closes Apr 18, 2026·14d remaining

KXVALORANTGAME-26APR181500CALGAL-GAL

7-day price247 snapshots · 7 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme mispricing with Galions priced at 99¢ despite modest $6,014.74 daily volume and only $3,809.27 open interest, suggesting insufficient liquidity to support such a confident probability. The 961% realized volatility and dramatic 96¢ price movement over seven days indicate severe instability, while the No side's 13,754% implied yield signals the market may be overweighting Galions' chances—a classic sign of thin-market distortion rather than genuine conviction. With 14 days to resolution and a 5/10 cliff risk index, this appears to be a low-liquidity esports market vulnerable to sharp reversals if new information emerges.

Resolution rules

If Galions wins the VCL France: Revolution Stage 2 2026: Caldya Esport vs. Galions Valorant match originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026 at 3:00 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.0%

IY (No) 13754.3%

Adj IY 12936%

CRI 5

RV 961%

VR 3.22

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	13754.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	12936%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	961%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.22	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 10:38:07 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 8:38:21 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXVALORANTGAME-26APR181500CALGAL-GAL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →