Ecuador vs Germany Winner?
KXWCGAME-26JUN25ECUGER-GER · closes Jul 9, 2026 · 87 days remaining
Price
Last
80¢
Bid
50¢
Ask
80¢
Spread
30¢
24h Volume
$500
Open Interest
$855
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 419.1% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 419.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.4% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 210% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
44 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
30¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 6:02:08 PM
About this market
If Germany wins the Ecuador vs Germany professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXWCGAME-26JUN25ECUGER-GER yes 100