Will Mexico qualify for FIFA World Cup Round of 16?
KXWCROUND-26RO16-MEX · closes Aug 2, 2026 · 111 days remaining
Price
Last
73¢
Bid
42¢
Ask
73¢
Spread
31¢
24h Volume
$0
Open Interest
$1,072
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 454.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 238.2% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 1 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 9.4% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 227% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
76 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.409
Label
neutral
Spread
31¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 2:56:49 PM
About this market
If Mexico is one of the teams to qualify for the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXWCROUND-26RO16-MEX yes 100