Will Ecuador qualify for FIFA World Cup Semifinals?
KXWCROUND-26SEMI-ECU · closes Aug 3, 2026 · 112 days remaining
Price
Last
7¢
Bid
7¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
18¢
24h Volume
$1
Open Interest
$603
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 4331.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 24.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 13 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 3.6% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | — | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | — | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | — | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2166% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
41 indicator snapshots · 2 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
Score
0.5
Label
neutral
Spread
18¢
Computed
4/13/2026, 2:59:11 PM
About this market
If Ecuador is one of the teams to qualify for the Semifinals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to trade
View on kalshi: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade KXWCROUND-26SEMI-ECU yes 100