Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?

The market is pricing an extremely high probability (91%) that Databricks will not IPO by June 30, 2026, with just 74 days to expiration, though the asymmetric implied yields (4993% for "No" vs. 48.8% for "Yes") suggest minimal liquidity on the bullish side despite $334k open interest. The 153% realized volatility and 2.1x vol ratio indicate significant price swings despite the flat 7-day movement, while the 1.3 info arrivals per hour suggest modest but steady market attention to potential IPO developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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