Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
0xd4a3de1964b1f3fa1edeca40dbc3ef6663a56fda84e804066c23096b615904f9 · closes Aug 18, 2026 · 124 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 55.9% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 1539.5% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 5 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 104% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.37 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 1539% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
14 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xd4a3de1964b1f3fa1edeca40dbc3ef6663a56fda84e804066c23096b615904f9 yes 100