Game 1: Portland at San Antonio Winner?

The San Antonio contract is pricing in an 84% win probability with a tight 2¢ spread, but the extreme 9,749% implied yield on the No side signals severe mispricing—the market is dramatically undervaluing a Portland upset at just 16¢. With $40,927 in 24-hour volume and 17 days to expiry, there's reasonable liquidity to exploit this asymmetry, though the 1,695% realized volatility and 7.63 vol ratio suggest this market has experienced significant swings that may reflect genuine uncertainty the 84¢ price isn't capturing. The neutral regime and modest 1.1 info arrivals per hour indicate no major news catalyst is driving the odds, making this potentially a structural mispricing rather than informed repricing.

Resolution rules

If San Antonio wins the Game 1: Portland at San Antonio professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade