Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?

Rick Jackson is priced at a substantial 66¢ with only 32 days to market close, reflecting moderately high confidence in his primary victory, though the 6¢ spread and elevated 175% realized volatility suggest meaningful uncertainty remains. The "No" side offers an extreme 2216% implied yield, indicating severe mispricing or tail-risk hedging, while the modest $303.8K daily volume against $14.75M open interest suggests liquidity could tighten sharply as expiration approaches. The recent 4¢ price appreciation over seven days combined with a neutral regime and 0.7/h information arrival rate suggests the market is actively digesting new candidate developments ahead of the May 19 primary.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Georgia, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Georgia Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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