Over 12 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.65M open interest and a wide 12¢ spread, suggesting the 22¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 403% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 49.8% on No, indicating either severe mispricing or that traders view 12+ 2026-launched coins reaching top-100 status as highly unlikely given typical market dynamics. With 258 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 2662%, this market exhibits extreme price instability that warrants caution—the recent 4¢ decline over seven days combined with the massive vol ratio of 12.23 suggests significant uncertainty or potential information gaps about what constitutes a "2026 launch."

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Indicators

Regime

Trade