How many Gold Cards will Trump sell this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that How many Gold Cards will Trump sell this year?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market exhibits extreme distress signals with a 3,123% realized volatility and a nonsensical 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing despite $170k open interest.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme distress signals with a 3,123% realized volatility and a nonsensical 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing despite $170k open interest. The price has collapsed 50% over seven days (from 4¢ to 2¢), and with only 12 days to expiry and a wide 5¢ spread, the market appears to be pricing in near-zero probability that the federal government will issue 1-5 gold cards before May 1, 2026. The low 24-hour volume of $7,602 relative to open interest indicates trapped liquidity, making this a high-risk position to enter or exit.
Resolution rules
If, before May 1, 2026, between 1-5 "gold cards" are issued by the federal government, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOLDCARDS-26-B3.0 yes 100