How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at 9¢, implying SpaceX will exceed 210 launches in 2026—a rate of over 4 per week that would represent a dramatic acceleration from historical performance and appears to be a data error or miscalibration.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at 9¢, implying SpaceX will exceed 210 launches in 2026—a rate of over 4 per week that would represent a dramatic acceleration from historical performance and appears to be a data error or miscalibration. The 4545% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and only $4,962 open interest suggests minimal liquidity and potential mispricing, while the recent sharp decline from 5¢ to 3¢ over seven days indicates either correcting sentiment or low-confidence pricing. With 260 days to expiry and a 32 cliff risk index, this contract carries significant tail risk and should be approached cautiously given the illiquid market structure.
Resolution rules
If SpaceX has more than 210 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-210 yes 100