Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
0x756b85cb4e3a4df45069df41a4c433634f80eaa025f0367e5a2a111ae01f4cb7 · closes Dec 31, 2026 · 259 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 599.7% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 33.0% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2297% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 10.21 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 6.0/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 600% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
584 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x756b85cb4e3a4df45069df41a4c433634f80eaa025f0367e5a2a111ae01f4cb7 yes 100