Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Morgan Stanley's 43¢ price reflects modest conviction at 43% implied probability, with a notably asymmetric risk-reward favoring the "Yes" side at 77.7% annualized yield versus 44.2% for "No." The extremely high realized volatility of 175% and vol ratio of 2.04 suggest significant uncertainty around SpaceX's IPO timing and underwriter selection, though the relatively thin $8.1M open interest and modest $729K daily volume indicate this is a niche market with limited liquidity that could experience sharp repricing on material news. With 623 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 0.7/h, the market appears fairly priced for the binary nature of underwriter selection, though the cliff risk index of 1 suggests the resolution criteria carry some ambiguity worth monitoring.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of SpaceX. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.” If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released. The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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