Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 85% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
85%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
585 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO
Lead Bank in SpaceX’s IPO?: Goldman Sachs
0x5a4a06…4bed
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Morgan Stanley will serve as lead underwriter for SpaceX's anticipated initial public offering. Currently priced at 50 cents, it represents a meaningful but not overwhelming market consensus, with Bank of America at 25 cents and Goldman Sachs at 18 cents as alternatives. The lead underwriter role carries significant prestige and fees, making it a competitive position among major investment banks. Market participants appear to be weighing factors including existing banking relationships with SpaceX leadership, historical precedent for which firms lead major tech IPOs, and each bank's current positioning within SpaceX's corporate finance ecosystem. Related contracts suggest markets expect SpaceX's IPO valuation in the $1.50-1.75 trillion range, though the lead underwriter selection will ultimately depend on Elon Musk's preference and negotiated terms with competing banks. The resolution will occur when SpaceX formally announces its IPO arrangements or completes the offering itself.
- ›Morgan Stanley's existing relationship with SpaceX and history of advising Musk on major transactions
- ›Relative trading volume and price stability across the three contracts ($128-141 per 24 hours) indicates moderate but sustained market interest
- ›Bank of America's 25-cent price reflects it as a credible alternative with established tech IPO track record
- ›Goldman Sachs' lower 18-cent price suggests market assigns it lower probability despite its investment banking prominence
- ›The 49-cent bid for Morgan Stanley (versus 50-cent mid) indicates some uncertainty persists despite it being the current leader
Recently closed in ai tech
- How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or morelast 90% · 4d
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- What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $240last 3% · 6d
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026last 90% · 8d
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of April?: $200last 5% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (85% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ai tech
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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