LIV Golf Mexico City: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?

This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 4586% and a risk-adjusted implied yield of 2163%, suggesting highly uncertain pricing or potential mispricing around a 56¢ level that has climbed 11 cents over the past week. The massive 24¢ spread and low liquidity ($4,365.76 open interest) indicate thin order books, making the 56% implied probability potentially unreliable for serious traders. With 29 days to resolution and an information arrival rate of 2.4 events per hour, this market appears to be experiencing significant repricing pressure that could continue until the event.

Resolution rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 LIV Golf Mexico City, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade