Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?

Janet Mills faces a 9% probability of securing Maine's Democratic Senate nomination, with the market pricing in substantial skepticism about her candidacy despite her current governorship. The extreme 3,517.5% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the asymmetric risk-reward typical of long-shot political outcomes, though the modest $4.2M daily volume and $71.2M open interest suggest limited conviction behind either side. The 2-cent price appreciation over seven days and neutral regime score indicate the market remains relatively stable with 105 days to the July 2026 close, though the high cliff risk index warrants monitoring for late-stage primary developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Maine. If no 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Maine Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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