Michael Rotten Tomatoes score?

98¢

Bid/Ask 89/99¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $880.21·Closes Apr 27, 2026·9d remaining

KXRT-MIC-30

7-day price31 snapshots · 2 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market has experienced dramatic price appreciation over seven days (7¢ to 98¢), reflecting near-certainty that Michael will achieve above a 30 Rotten Tomatoes score by April 2026, though the $0 24-hour volume and $880 open interest suggest extremely thin liquidity. The asymmetric implied yields (496% for Yes versus 32,495% for No) indicate the No position is severely mispriced or represents pure tail risk, with a high cliff risk index of 8 suggesting binary resolution dynamics. With only 9 days to expiry and a 10¢ spread, any new information about the film's critical reception could trigger sharp repricing in this illiquid market.

Resolution rules

If Michael has a Tomatometer score of above 30 on Apr 27, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 496.4%

IY (No) 32495.4%

Adj IY 16248%

CRI 8

Overround 2.9%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	496.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	32495.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	16248%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 11:54:30 AM

Indicators computed 4/18/2026, 11:53:21 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXRT-MIC-30 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →