Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
0x0bde18e0a0220d1f97173850504a1ed4fa90ef2c6a7bc0932952790053ca0c0e · closes Aug 4, 2026 · 110 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 2033.4% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 53.9% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 6 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | -0.0% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1052% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 2.31 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 2033% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
136 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
How to trade
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