Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?

This market prices Sam Altman's departure at just 25%, but the asymmetric implied yields (428% for Yes vs. 48% for No) suggest significant tail risk that traders are pricing in despite the low probability. The extremely high realized volatility of 605% and vol ratio of 3.17 indicate this is a highly speculative contract with substantial price swings, while the modest 24-hour volume of $365 relative to $8.9M open interest suggests liquidity could be thin during sharp moves. With 256 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 1.6 events per hour, the market appears to be pricing in OpenAI's recent organizational turbulence, though the 3-point cliff risk index warrants caution around potential binary news events.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the named people no longer serving as CEOs of their respective companies for any length of time between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of the named CEO's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the named CEOs and their respective companies, however a consensus of credible reporting sources will also be used.

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