Will Mike Trout win the 2026 AL Comeback Player of the Year award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.1M open interest, suggesting the position is largely trapped or speculative. The 25¢ price implies only a 25% probability for Trout, but the implied yield of nearly 500% on the yes side reflects the market's assessment of substantial tail risk—likely pricing in uncertainty around Trout's injury status and recovery trajectory heading into 2026. The 8¢ spread and realized volatility exceeding 2900% indicate this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded contract where price discovery is limited and execution risk is significant.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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