Will Rhett Lowder win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 43¢ spread despite modest $1.46M open interest, suggesting the 22¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The 499% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the wide bid-ask gap rather than genuine expected returns, while the 7735% realized volatility indicates this is a highly speculative position with minimal trading activity. With 245 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this market remains highly uncertain and illiquid, making it difficult to assess whether Lowder's 22% probability is fairly priced or simply a function of thin order books.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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